From Apparent Stability to Risk Management: What Energy and Transportation Companies Must Learn Ahead of 2026

From Apparent Stability to Risk Management: What Energy and Transportation Companies Must Learn Looking Ahead to 2026

Fernando Vázquez, consulting partner at ERA Group

In recent years, few sectors have attracted as much attention from companies as energy and transportation. Following a series of shocks that tested budgets, supply chains, and operating models, 2025 has brought a sense of partial relief. Prices have moderated in some cases, and extreme volatility is now behind us. However, it would be a mistake to interpret this scenario as a return to normalcy.

Looking ahead to 2026, the real challenge lies not so much in price levels as in the complexity surrounding them. Energy and transportation remain critical categories not only because of their weight on the bottom line, but also because of their ability to amplify operational, financial, and strategic risks.

When stability is no longer synonymous with normality

In the energy sector, Europe has clearly moved past the most acute phase of the 2022 crisis. Electricity and gas prices have fallen from their peaks and are pointing toward greater stability on average. However, they remain significantly higher than before the crisis and, above all, higher than in other regions such as the United States. This gap represents a structural disadvantage for European industry in a highly competitive global environment.

Added to this is a profound shift in the energy mix. The growing penetration of renewable energy, which already accounts for approximately half of Europe’s electricity generation, has reduced dependence on fossil fuels but has also introduced greater price volatility. Energy is cleaner today, but also more difficult to predict, which complicates budget planning and risk management.

In transportation and logistics, 2025 has been less a year of sudden price changes and more an exercise in adapting to market behavior. In road transport, relative stability has been accompanied by announcements of moderate price increases for 2026, driven mainly by wage inflation and higher maintenance costs. Fuel continues to be treated as a separate surcharge, adding further uncertainty.

Maritime transport, for its part, has left behind the extreme peaks of previous years, with significant declines in rates, although volatility remains a constant. Adding to this scenario is the rise of “nearshoring” (the relocation of part of production and sourcing to closer markets), which is redefining the flow of goods and altering the risks associated with international transport. At the same time, carriers are adopting more defensive positions, increasing surcharges and limiting their exposure, which reduces shippers’ room to maneuver.

Learning to make decisions in a less extreme but more complex environment

The common lesson in energy and transportation is clear. The question for 2026 is no longer just how to reduce costs, but whether organizations truly understand where their risks are concentrated and how these risks can impact margins, operations, and service levels.

Digitalization, data visibility, and supplier diversification are no longer optional initiatives but have become basic elements of management. Treating these categories as strategic risks, rather than mere budget items, will allow companies to build resilience without sacrificing competitiveness.

Apparent stability can be misleading. Companies that know how to anticipate, secure favorable terms when the market allows, and make data-driven decisions will be better prepared to compete in an environment that, while less extreme than in recent years, will remain demanding and complex. In 2026, it won’t be those who react fastest who win, but those who understood the risks first.