Remember how we discussed Washington’s tariff threats and braced for a bumpy ride? The ride is still a bit choppy, but we’ve got some fresh intel and updated strategies for ANZ businesses to help them stay afloat. The global trade waters are still churning, but with a bit of foresight and some clever moves, we can still navigate this.
What’s Changed (and What’s Still Causing Headaches)
Since our last paper, the US tariff landscape, especially concerning China, has been as unpredictable as a rogue wave, shifting five times already this year! While the crippling 145% tariff on cargo from China bound for the US was dramatically de-escalated to 30% for 90 days, that’s still unworkable for many businesses, especially smaller ones.
The big takeaway from the recent tariff dance is the uncertainty and the rush. Retailers worldwide are already stockpiling goods to prepare for potential future price hikes. We saw this before the initial 9 April tariffs, and we’re seeing it again, with transportation costs skyrocketing. This means that for ANZ shippers, understanding these global shifts is more critical than ever. Tight capacity drives rate pressure as importers rush shipments, impacting trans-Pacific market conditions.
The Ripple Effect: It’s Not Just About Direct Hits
Even if you’re not directly shipping to or from the US and China, these tariff tremors create significant ripple effects. There are many interdependencies in the world of international shipping. We can expect a delay of three to six months in the ANZ freight markets. As highlighted by Onur Koska of the University of Canterbury, tariffs lead to inefficiencies, including increased domestic prices (pass-through effects), decreased global prices (elasticity effects), and renegotiation of contracts and reconfiguration of supply chains. Commodity prices (such as steel, copper, and lumber) are surging, driving up construction and maintenance costs globally. Port expansion plans and day-to-day operations are feeling the pressure, with imported spare parts and equipment becoming increasingly expensive. This could impact the overall cost of doing business.
Interestingly, while some cargo volumes might shrink due to tariff re-routing, others are shifting. Southeast Asian ports, for instance, are becoming critical hubs. This could present new opportunities for ANZ businesses looking to diversify their supply chains and explore new trade routes. For example, if China reduces US imports of dairy and beef. Lumber and tech services are also highlighted as exempt from additional tariffs, offering continued access to the US market for New Zealand exporters.
Updated Playbook for ANZ Shippers
In our previous paper, we talked about “Sussing Out Your Critical Supply Chain Bits and Pieces.” Now, it’s time to get savvier and implement some robust strategies to turn this tariff turbulence into a competitive advantage.
Scenario Planning: Play out the ‘What Ifs’: Don’t just hope for the best. Develop multiple budget scenarios based on varying tariff levels. Think about how logistical delays (like those 12-18 day jumps in global container transit times we’ve seen) could affect your berth capacity and storage. This helps you identify mission-critical projects and those that can be put on the back burner.
Drill Down into High-Risk Categories: Identify and isolate your high-risk spend categories. Overlay tariff data to see where the hits are sharpest. Can you explore alternative materials or standardise designs to make sourcing easier if prices spike? Onur Koska also points to “Product differentiation” as a hedging strategy to make products less price-sensitive.
Forward Purchasing and Stock Buffers: If possible, accelerate purchasing to secure current prices for essential commodities. Building strategic inventory buffers for vital materials can save you a significant amount later.
Supplier Diversification (Beyond Just China+1): We’ve discussed this before, but it’s worth reiterating. Avoid single-sourcing from tariff-vulnerable regions. Seek out dual or multi-sourcing for critical components and, where feasible, qualify local or regional manufacturers. Building these relationships now is key to maintaining resilience and agility. Similarly, research the option of “Market Diversification” by exploring relationships with countries not affected by US tariffs, such as those in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
Risk-Based Contracting: Review and update your contract terms with suppliers and contractors to include precise tariff-adjustment mechanisms. We’re talking about price escalation clauses tied to commodity indices. Critically, define your Incoterms precisely to know exactly who’s on the hook for escalating duties (FCA vs. CIP vs. DDP). Don’t forget force majeure or hardship clauses that explicitly cover sudden tariff hikes.
Final Thoughts: Agility is Your Superpower
The tariff landscape remains a beast of uncertainty. However, those ANZ businesses that proactively build agility and robustness into their supply chains will be the ones with the resilience to weather the storm and even emerge on top. It’s about gaining deep visibility, mitigating costs and risks, and collaborating closely with your suppliers and customers.
And remember, while the US and China might be playing tariff ping-pong, it could open doors for Australian and New Zealand exporters as substitute suppliers to other markets. Flexibility in production is also a key hedging strategy, as recommended by the University of Canterbury, aiming to reduce renegotiation costs.
Sources:
- K+N, Capitalising on Chaos, 5 June 2025
- UC, Onur A. Koska, Trade and Tariffs: A General Economic Perspective, 5 June 2025
- ArcBlue, Navigating Tariff Turbulence, May 2025
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