ERA Group’s quarterly insights regarding market conditions, potential impacts on procurement, and supply chain planning.
General supply chain observations & updates
Supply chain & freight
ILA Strike short-lived
The three-day International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strike ended with the reopening of ports on Friday, October 4, 2024. While many ports (36) were closed, not all ports ceased working.1
Clearing the three-day port closure will take time. According to Everstream Analytics, one week is needed to catch up for each day of the strike.2 The master contract was only extended until January 15, 2025; however, both parties have agreed to continue to negotiate in
hopes of forgoing another strike.
Weather wreaking havoc
All eyes remain on the U.S. East Coast as storms continue to pummel this region. Delays and disruptions remain in the shipping services for FedEx, UPS, and U.S. Postal Service in North Carolina. 3
U.S. Election effects on supply chain
Government legislation and policies changing—or not changing—have moved to the forefront of considerations for supply chain leaders. “Supply chains have more recently become a larger part of political conversation following major events and disruptions such as the pandemic, Panama Canal drought, labour challenges, and geopolitical tensions abroad.”4
Freight rates and holiday shipping
The lead-up to the holiday season will keep freight demand high, and spot rates are expected to rise steadily.5 “Return to normal” operation conditions have resumed in the Panama Canal, although the ocean freight “situation” is still far from stable.6
KEY TAKEAWAYS: Buckle up! It’s likely to be a bumpy ride from now through early 2025. Volatility related to labour, weather, politics, global shipping, and a potential resumed strike by the ILA will likely keep supply chain planning more challenging than ever for the next several months, maybe longer. Our encouragement is to continue developing mutually beneficial relationships with your suppliers. They tend to take care of the customers, where there is the most mutual respect.
Corrugated
The fibre packaging industry is seeing flat pricing in October 2024, with sales volumes slowly recovering from the “cardboard box recession.” While Cascades announced a price increase for linerboard, other major producers like International Paper and Smurfit Westrock haven’t followed, making the increase largely unsuccessful. Analysts expect prices to remain flat for the rest of 2024, with potential increases in March 2025. Demand levels are anticipated to hold steady until after the U.S. election in November, though inflation and uncertainty may impact the market further.7
KEY TAKEAWAY: The corrugated market has stabilised since the most recent increase in June. Stay the course with your suppliers, and make sure you have contractual documents in place for how future price adjustments are treated.
Lumber/Pallets
Lumber prices remained close to $530 per thousand board feet despite weakened demand from higher U.S. mortgage rates and a decline in housing permits and starts. Production remains low, with U.S. output down 3.2% compared to last year. Mill closures, especially by Canfor, have tightened supply, pushing prices up despite softening demand. Economic expectations have shifted as higher rates limit housing activity, tempering hopes for a “soft landing” in the U.S. economy.8 However, interest rates are now expected to decline further in 2024 and 2025, which may revive U.S. housing activity. This, in turn, could impact demand and prices for lumber.
Pallet prices for 2024 have stabilised after significant fluctuations during the previous years, with prices softening and reaching a potential low. The main drivers affecting pallet costs include changes in lumber prices, labour challenges, and transportation costs. While there is cautious optimism for a modest recovery, external factors like extreme weather and geopolitical tensions could still impact prices. Additionally, softwood pallets are becoming more common due to their better availability and cost compared to hardwood.9
KEY TAKEAWAY: Despite market drivers potentially indicating otherwise, we are quickly approaching the holidays, also affectionately known as “Amazon Season.” Pallet demand will spike between now and early January, and prices will likely follow suit. Working with your suppliers to ensure you will have adequate supply is paramount, while also working with them to ensure they are not unfairly taking advantage of you with respect to price.
Chemicals & Gases
For Q4 2024, industrial chemical prices are facing mixed trends due to several global factors. While demand for certain chemicals has softened due to economic conditions, such as high inflation and tight monetary policies, others—particularly those tied to sectors like energy transition and sustainable technologies—are seeing steady growth. Despite challenges, the outlook for chemical pricing remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of recovery in 2025 as demand normalises and inflationary pressures ease.10
KEY TAKEAWAY: The market looks like it could be on the rise starting in early 2025. If you have not previously worked with your suppliers to ensure they are treating you fairly, as well as using indices for price movements, now is the time to do so.
Plastics
While polypropylene (PP) prices continue to decrease, the downward trend may be coming to an end. Polyethylene (PE) prices remained steady, but export prices are slipping. Railcars drove the bulk of PE transactions, and buyers are focusing on well-priced offers. Inventory levels for both PE and PP rose in September, though there was little interest in PP exports. The market may see an end to the price declines if October reductions are significant enough.12,13
The index for plastic bags and pouches continued to rise through September, and we are seeing these increases reflected in plastics pricing.
KEY TAKEAWAY: If you are a buyer of polyethylene or polypropylene, now is a good time to purchase in a declining market. For packaging supplies such as plastic bags, film, and pouches, having supply agreements in place to protect you in the increasing market is paramount.
Metals
For Q4 2024, Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) and Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) steel prices are projected to remain relatively stable, though there could be
minor downward pressure. Market sentiment indicates a “status quo” attitude for HRC, with limited price movement expected through the remainder of the year, though election outcomes and mill outages could introduce volatility. The spread between CRC and HRC remains steady, and lead times for CRC remain around six to seven weeks. These prices reflect the impact of stable demand, global economic conditions, and potential geopolitical risks, with the possibility of slight price declines but no major disruptions forecasted for the immediate future.14
KEY TAKEAWAY: While not necessarily reflected in the index values, there is no end in sight to the supply constraints for copper and brass. Securing any needed supply should be a very high priority. The steel market is uncertain; therefore, as always, maintaining or improving your supplier relationships is a great practice.
Sources:
1) “Port of New York and New Jersey reopen following IL strike,” supplychaindive.com; 2) “The Port Strike Is Over (For Now): What’s Next?” inboundlogistics.com; 3) “Hurricane Helene: FedEx, UPS and US Postal Service still disrupted,” supplychaindive.com; 4) “How the 2024 Presidential Election Could Impact Supply Chains,” inboundlogistics.com; 5)“Industry Market Trends,” September 2024, bmfreight.com; 6)“Peak Season 2024: Projections, and Last-Minute Advice,” supplychainbridge.com; 7) fibre Packaging Pricing Remains Flat, PackagingDive.com; 8) TradingEconomics.com; 9) Pallet Price Trends For 2024, Falm.com; 10) ICIS.com; 11) Weekly Chemistry and Economic Trends, AmericanChemistry.com; 12) Resin Price Report: Bargains May be Coming to an End, PlasticsToday.com; 13) Market Update October 11, ThePlasticsExchange.com; 14) Feguson Weekly Newsletter, Week of October 21, 2024;
