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The world has been turned upside down by geopolitical tensions and exploding energy prices. Does the 2026 budget need to be overhauled already? In this expert blog, Ronald Batenburg explains why traditional budgeting no longer works.
The first quarter of 2026 is already over. Where do you stand in relation to your budget? A budget that, in many cases, was drawn up in the period from, let’s say, September through November 2025. It already seems like an eternity ago. And in a certain sense, of course, it is.
At that time, prices for a barrel of Brent crude oil, for example, were already falling considerably again, and with them the price level of all linked products. For many commodities, prices had even returned to pre-corona crisis levels.
In addition, the actual impact of 'Liberation Day' in the US on April 2, 2025, the day President Trump announced a broad package of tariffs, turned out to be quite limited in the months following the summer. The idea was to force countries to conclude trade deals that were better for the US. In reality, very few deals were concluded, and many tariffs have since been rolled back. Moreover, it was the Americans themselves who paid the price for this.
In the retrospective of ERA Group, where I am an advisor, regarding 2025, the following text appeared literally: 'After several turbulent years, 2025 brought a cautious sense of normalisation across many cost categories. Prices fell in some areas, while remaining stable in others.'
For many companies, these were therefore signals to budget for growth in 2026, for both revenue and profit, albeit with moderate caution. After all, there was still sufficient uncertainty in the global economy and geopolitics.
