🛢️ Oil price behaviour
In recent months, the price of oil has fallen significantly, despite tensions in the Middle East. This is attributable to a confluence of factors: increased supply (particularly from non-OPEC+ producers), a deceleration in global demand, and a proportionate reaction from financial markets to geopolitical risk. This scenario has exerted sustained downward pressure on crude oil prices.
📉 Evolution of plastic resin prices
Decline until the start of the year
- End of 2024 and start of 2025: significant declines were observed in resins such as PE, PP and PET, driven by excess supply, diminished demand, and reduced petrochemical input costs (plasticosycaucho.com; icis.com).
- In Asia, corporate PET prices also fell and exhibited modest fluctuations, in line with the decline in PTA and MEG costs (es.wkaiglobal.com).
Partial recovery and tensions
- January to March 2025: breaks in the downward trend due to production disruptions; extreme weather conditions and supply constraints (ambienteplastico.com)
- April-May 2025: mixed signals; some resins exhibited flat or moderate increases, while others continued to decline due to tariff uncertainty and subdued demand (ptonline.com).
Current situation: June 2025
- In North America, resin prices continue to fall, influenced by oversupply, subdued demand, and an uncertain tariff environment (ambienteplastico.com).
🔍 Comparison: oil versus plastics
Summary of dynamics
- The autumn in oil prices tempered the costs of petrochemical inputs, leading to sharp declines in plastic resin prices (ambienteplastico.com).
- Lagging demand and excess supply led to overstocking in the resin markets, putting further pressure on prices.
- Specific events (weather, disruptions, tariffs) led to temporary price corrections, albeit without reversing the overall trend.
💡 Conclusions and recommendations for companies
- The extremely high correlation with oil prices (up to 90% correlation) renders plastic resins sensitive to crude oil cycles.
- Oversized global supply, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, prolongs downward pressure.
- Structural factors (tariff disputes, climate, logistics) have an intermittent impact, but do not alter the main trend.
💼 Strategic reflection
This scenario requires CEOs and CFOs to act with agility and vision. Reviewing supply contracts, renegotiating conditions with clauses linked to oil indices, and diversifying resin sources are essential measures. Likewise, engaging specialised external advice, such as that offered by ERA Group, enables you to:
- Correctly interpret signals from the petrochemical market.
- Design hedging strategies.
- Implement cost and logistics efficiency models.
In an environment where price fluctuations are sudden and frequent, expert support not only safeguards margins, but also provides the agility to seize opportunities and mitigate risks.
