On Thursday, 23 October, Dominique Seux presented his interpretation of the French economic situation during the final quarter of 2025, from a geopolitical perspective. Under the title "Businesses, rise up! Building prosperity in an uncertain world," he addressed business leaders to underscore the challenges to consider and the strengths to capitalise on in 2026.
Here are six key ideas from his presentation:
1// The situation in France is not as dire as perceived; our economic standing is not catastrophic.
Life expectancy continues to increase, particularly in good health; the crisis in purchasing power is not as severe as we are led to believe, as evidenced by our European record in cultural consumption, private swimming pools, and a savings rate that has reached 19%. Growth is forecast at around 1% for 2026, with unemployment at 7.5% compared to the predicted 9%.
2// France stands out for its "quilt economy"
It cushions both downward and upward shocks, which protects us but also sometimes prevents us from rebounding. Some sectors are experiencing significant difficulties, real estate, automotive, chemicals/metallurgy, but others are doing well, such as aeronautics, defence, healthcare and services.
3// Power relations have taken hold in the economy and now count for more than the law
Competition is now more important than cooperation, and this trend is set to continue. It echoes the current preference for leaders who appear to "take strong action", even if it means "acting like madmen rather than weaklings". This phenomenon is amplified by a certain uninhibited communication driven by social media, which gives more weight to reactions and opinions than to the facts themselves.
4// Three structural issues need to be addressed urgently: the market economy, the cost of labour and the quantity of work.
France remains the sole Western nation divided on the market economy model. Furthermore, the quantum of compulsory levies on labour has become prohibitive, resulting in a TSS (Tout Sauf le Salariat, or "anything but salaried employment") effect. Lastly, with an average of 664 hours of work per capita annually, compared to 774 hours across Europe, our overall volume of work is demonstrably lower than that of our neighbouring countries.
5// What is France's economic identity?
For the British, it is insularity; for the Germans, production; for the Americans, innovation; for the Italians and Greeks, history and heritage. France, for its part, stands out for its creativity, as it proved to the whole world during the Olympic Games. We must dare to promote it, and our companies have the legitimacy to do so!
6// Three priorities are paramount for leaders over the forthcoming five years: vigilance regarding the geo-economy and stock markets, and the courage to articulate their positions.
During this transitional period, where highly media-proficient figures are disrupting the political landscape, it is imperative that economic stakeholders learn to articulate their views with comparable assertiveness. For instance, what is the stance of our medium-sized enterprises on the Zucman tax? Business leaders, be bold in articulating, embodying, and narrating the generation of tangible value, leveraging technological, health, and entrepreneurial advancements!
